The triangular geopolitical relationship between the United States, India, and Pakistan is evolving amid changing global alignments.
Trump’s return to power has reshaped regional perceptions, reopening old alliances and deepening new strategic uncertainties.
The U.S. Pivot & Strategic Ambivalence
Trump’s transactional diplomacy emphasizes short-term gains over long-term commitments.
Renewed ties with Pakistan:
- $397 million aid to support Pakistan’s F-16 fleet.
- Praise for Pakistan’s military leadership (e.g., Field Marshal Asim Munir).
- Offers to “broker peace” between India & Pakistan.
Risks “hyphenation” of India and Pakistan — undermining India’s singular strategic value.
India’s Strategic Shift
India’s early convergence with Trump (on counterterrorism) is now strained.
- Operation Sindoor (post-Pahalgam attack): Marks India’s shift from strategic restraint to proactive retaliation.
- New doctrine:
- Hard military response + Global diplomatic isolation of Pakistan.
- Concerns over a two-front threat: Pakistan-China coordination deepens.
Pakistan’s Recalibration
Military consolidation under Field Marshal Munir.
Uses geostrategic location as leverage in:
- U.S.-Iran tensions
- Afghan logistics
- China’s BRI expansions
Employs personal diplomacy, rare-earth deals, and regional centrality to stay strategically relevant.
Lacks India’s economic weight but compensates with tactical diplomacy & intelligence influence.
Conclusion
- US: Faces the challenge of balancing values and interests.
- India: Must assert strategic autonomy amid realignments.
- Pakistan: Banks on geography, diplomacy, and military leverage to
stay geopolitically relevant.