On September 17, 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) in Riyadh. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and PM Shahbaz Sharif, joined by Field Marshal Asim Munir, projected the deal as a milestone in regional security. However, its sustainability, credibility, and implications remain debated, particularly for India.
History of Saudi–Pakistani Defence Cooperation
- Early Engagement (1951 onwards): Defence collaboration began in the 1950s.
- Golden Decade (1979–1989): Nearly 20,000 Pakistani troops stationed in Saudi Arabia for shrine
protection and countering Iran/Yemen threats.
- Tensions: Saudis saw Pakistanis as mercenaries; Pakistani officers resented subordination.
- Exclusion of Shia soldiers aggravated mistrust.
1990 Onwards:
- Pakistani troops withdrawn.
- During Kuwait invasion (1990) and Yemen war (2015), Pakistan restricted its role to protecting holy sites, refusing direct military engagement.
Role of the U.S.
- U.S. has historically influenced Saudi–Pakistani ties.
- Recent developments (Munir’s meeting with President Trump) indicate Washington’s hand in shaping a triangular security framework (Saudi–Pakistan–U.S.).
Riyadh’s Calculations
Defence Needs vs. Constraints:
- Failed attempt to secure U.S. defence pact & nuclear cooperation after Gaza war (2023).
- SMDA seen as a consolation prize.
Factors Influencing Saudi Choices:
- Survived post-1991 crises (terrorism, Gulf wars, Yemen) without large foreign presence.
- Acquired $100 bn advanced U.S. weapons.
- Nuclear dimension: Pakistan’s nuclear status enhances deterrence, though actual transfer is improbable.
- China–Pakistan nexus complicates Riyadh’s flexibility.
Pakistan’s Perspective: Strategic Opportunism
Motivations:
- Unlikely to fight Saudi battles against Iran/Yemen/Israel.
- Aims to monetise Saudi insecurity: economic aid, oil concessions, arms.
- Leverage trilateral link with U.S. to balance India.
- Enhance military’s domestic prestige and global profile.
Asymmetry:
Saudi Arabia seeks reassurance, Pakistan seeks material/economic dividends.
Regional Implications: India’s Position
- Energy Security: India is world’s 3rd-largest oil importer and a top Saudi partner.
- Trade & Diaspora: 2nd-largest trading partner; valued Indian diaspora in Gulf.
- Strategic Cooperation: Since 2014, closer defence & intelligence ties with Riyadh.
Saudi Balancing Act:
- Recognises India’s nuclear & strategic weight.
- Reportedly briefed New Delhi on SMDA → signalling no anti-India intent.
India’s Strategic Outlook:
- Remain vigilant of Pak–Saudi axis.
- Deepen West Asia engagement.
- Strengthen maritime presence across the Arabian Sea.
Conclusion
- The SMDA is more symbolic than substantive.
- For Riyadh: A hedge in uncertain regional dynamics.
- For Islamabad: A financial and strategic lifeline.
- For India: A reminder to reinforce strategic ties with West Asia while preparing for possible shifts in Pakistan’s external support base.