📍 El Niño fades, food prices cool, economy finds relief
🔥 2023-24: A Year of Agricultural Strain
🌊 El Niño Impact:
- Sea surface temperatures: +2°C above 30-year avg
- One of the strongest and longest El Niño events
- Led to deficient rainfall, delayed winter, heatwaves
🚜 Crop Damage:
- Subpar kharif and rabi output
- Poor yields across cereals and vegetables
📈 Food Inflation Spike: The Chain Reaction
💹 Prices Soared:
- July 2023–Dec 2024: Avg 8.5% food inflation
- Longest inflation spell in recent years🏠 Household Budgets Stretched:
- Less money for non-essentials
- Consumer demand for FMCG slowed down
oHindustan Unilever: 0% growth in Q4 2024
🌍 El Niño Disruption:
- Rainfall deficits ➝ crop loss ➝ supply shocks ➝ price rise ➝ demand slump
🧊 2025: Food Prices Begin to Cool
📉 Retail Food Inflation (March 2025):
- Down to 2.7% y-o-y — lowest since Nov 2021
🌧️ Farm Recovery:
- Favorable monsoon, mild La Niña effects
- Improved weather ➝ better yields ➝ lower prices
🌾 Supply Stabilizes:
- Kharif & rabi crops flowing into markets
- Relief for consumers and economy alike